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OCTOBER 29,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:33 P.M. ET: 

STEAM HEAT – Lots of heat directed today at the Republican National Committee for agreeing to the terms that made last night's debate a farce.  The farce was created by three mean-spirited "journalists" asking insulting, demeaning questions.  Even some liberals today winced at the low standards.  CNBC should stand ashamed.  But get this:  NBC gets to host another Republican debate in February.  I think the RNC should read NBC the riot act, and make it clear that the public expects a much higher level of journalism.  This is about the American presidency.

BUDDING SCANDAL – The nerve – a government agency trying to hide climate-change research from a Congressional committee.  Didn't the American people pay for that research?  From Fox:  The Republican head of the House science committee is fighting to obtain documents from the Obama administration on a controversial global warming study, as the agency that produced it locks down internal records despite a subpoena.  The report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) claims to refute prior studies showing the rate of global warming had flattened in recent decades.  Rep. Lamar Smith, R-Texas, a global warming skeptic who questioned the data, issued a subpoena on Oct. 13 for the agency to "compel production of documents and communications relating to adjustments of historical temperature data."  I'm neither a proponent nor a denier.  I want more facts, and I become suspicious when facts are withheld. 

RYAN IS IN – From The Hill:   Lawmakers on Thursday elected Rep. Paul Ryan the 54th Speaker of the House, ending weeks of uncertainty over who would lead the raucous 247-member GOP conference after John Boehner’s surprise resignation.  On a day filled with pomp and excitement, the Wisconsin Republican received 236 votes for Speaker — more than the 218 needed to win on the first ballot. His only challenger, little-known Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), whom Ryan defeated in an internal GOP election Wednesday, received nine votes from conservatives on the floor.  The nine GOP Webster backers were Reps. Dave Brat (Va.), Curt Clawson (Fla.), Louie Gohmert (Texas), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Walter Jones (N.C.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Bill Posey (Fla.), Randy Weber (Texas) and Ted Yoho (Fla.).  Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a former Speaker herself and the person who presented the gavel to Ryan Thursday, received 184 votes, all from Democrats.  We wish Ryan well.  If he shines as speaker, and gets things done, there may well be a large white house in his future.

October 29,  2015     Permalink

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – AT 5:21 P.M. ET:  Higher education moves lower.  From National Review:   

It’s about time! Colleges are hanging flyers around campus with phone numbers of officials that students can call to consult with about whether or not their Halloween costume is perfectly politically correct.

“Unsure if your costume might be offensive?” asks a poster that’s been hung around campus at State University of New York at Geneseo. “Don’t be afraid to ask questions.”

The poster contains the phone numbers and e-mails of five (five!) campus officials that students can contact and discuss the very important issue of whether or not what they will dress up as to get drunk in will be advancing social-justice causes.

Wesleyan University has been hanging similar posters around the school — but with six (six!) numbers listed.

It’s not clear whether students will be able to reach these numbers round-the-clock through Halloween weekend. Hopefully they will. After all, Halloween is a very serious issue, and can not be treated as if it were just some fun little holiday that’s a chance for people to use their imaginations and have some fun without taking each other too seriously.

COMMENT:  All this for $50,000 a year.  One free costume included.

October 29, 2015       Permalink

UN RAPS IRAN – AT 9:46 A.M. ET:  It doesn't happen often, but occasionally the UN gets it right.  We should celebrate the occasion.  From The New York Times:

The special United Nations investigator of human rights in Iran presented a highly critical report on Tuesday that contradicted the Tehran government’s own assessment, describing a record rate of executions, a deeply flawed judiciary and repression of journalists, dissidents, women and freedom of expression.

The conditions described by the investigator, Ahmed Shaheed, a former Maldives foreign minister and an expert on human rights in Muslim-majority countries, belied the image of moderation and eased constraints that President Hassan Rouhani of Iran has sought to project since his election in 2013.

In some ways, Mr. Shaheed said, Iranians are worse off than during the era of Mr. Rouhani’s polarizing and relatively conservative predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Amendments to a criminal procedure law, for example, impose new restrictions on access to legal counsel. Some defendants must now choose lawyers from a pool selected by the head of the judiciary.

“The human rights situation in the country remains dire,” Mr. Shaheed said in a briefing at the United Nations. Despite Mr. Rouhani’s pledge to lighten the repressive atmosphere that prevailed during the Ahmadinejad years, Mr. Shaheed said, there was a “strong disconnect between the professed policy of engagement and the behavior of authorities on the ground.”

It was Mr. Shaheed’s fifth report on Iran since he was appointed to the post of special rapporteur in 2011, and his first since the completion of a nuclear agreement in July between Iran and the major world powers, which will end many isolating sanctions on the country in exchange for guarantees that its atomic work is peaceful.

COMMENT:  Straight talk from an institution where straight talk is a special event.  So we've just rewarded Iran for its dismal human-rights record by signing a nuclear accord with Tehran and inviting the Iranian government to participate in talks on the future of Syria.   Brilliant, really brilliant.  The brain of Barack Obama at work.

October 29, 2015        Permalink

AND THE PUBLIC LOVED IT – AT 9:18 A.M. ET:  The exchange (related below) between Ted Cruz and a CBNC questioner apparently electrified the public, according to Frank Luntz.  From RealClearPolitics: 

A Frank Luntz focus group aired on FOX News' The Kelly File after the CNBC Republican presidential debate agreed: Sen. Ted Cruz hit it out of the park with his warning not to trust the media. Luntz said he's never tested a line that scored as well as Cruz's.

"Megyn, I've been doing this since 1996. This is a special moment. I've never tested in any primary debate a line that scored as well as this. It was all about what was wrong with the CNBC moderators and wrong with the media. The best line of the entire debate," Luntz said.

"The questions asked in this debate illustrate why the American people don't trust the media," Cruz at Wednesday's Republican debate. "Everyone home tonight knows that the moderators have no intention of voting in a Republican primary."

"This is exactly what the media wanted to do and it actually turned out well," one woman said.

Nearly the whole group had positive feelings for Cruz after the debate.

"It was the Newt response from the last election," a man said. "It hit right home."

COMMENT:  At one time, political people were afraid to take on the media.  There's an old saying in politics:  "Don't start a fight with anyone who buys ink by the barrel."  I think those days are over.  The media will be Hillary's enabler, as it was Obama's.  By exposing the media/liberal axis, the Republicans can electrify our side, and get the good masses to the polls.

October 29, 2015        Permalink 

THE GREAT MOMENT – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  We alluded to this at "Short Takes" very late last night.  The big loser in the latest Republican debate was the media.  The shining moment came when the brilliant Ted Cruz took on the "journalists" asking the questions.  From RealClearPolitics: 

At the Republican debate hosted by CNBC in Boulder, Colorado Wednesday night, presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz lambasted the moderators, particularly John Harwood of The New York Times, and the media for their treatment and characterization of himself and his competitors.

"The questions asked in this debate illustrate why the American people don't trust the media," Cruz at Wednesday's Republican debate. "Everyone home tonight knows that the moderators have no intention of voting in a Republican primary."

Cruz later went tete-a-tete with Harwood, a CNBC contributor, for cutting him off and wanting to move on.

"Congressional Republicans, Democrats and the White House are about to strike a compromise that would raise the debt limit, prevent a government shutdown, and calm financial markets of the fear that a Washington crisis is on the way. Does your opposition to it show you're not the kind of problem-solver that American voters want?" CNBC anchor Carl Quintanilla asked the presidential candidate.

"Let me say something at the outset," the Senator from Texas said. "The questions asked in this debate illustrate why the American people don't trust the media."

"This is not a cage match. And you look at the questions -- Donald Trump, are you a comic book villain? Ben Carson, can you do math? John Kasich, will you insult two people over here? Marco Rubio, why don't you resign? Jeb Bush, why have your numbers fallen? How about talking about the substantive issues," Cruz said to commanding applause from the audience.

"Do we get credit for this one," Quintanilla asked Cruz?

"And Carl, I'm not finished yet. The contrast with the Democratic debate, where every thought and question from the media was, which of you is more handsome and why?" Cruz asked and then paused to cough.

"You have 30 seconds left to answer should you choose to do so," Quintanilla told the candidate.

"Let me be clear," Cruz said. "The men and women on this stage have more ideas, more experience, more common sense, than ever participant in the Democratic debate. That debate reflected a debate between the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks."

"Nobody believes that the moderators have any intention of voting in a Republican primary," Cruz said.

"The questions being asked shouldn't be trying to get people to tear into each other, it should be what are your substantive solutions to people at home," Cruz said before getting cut off.

"I asked you about the debt limit and got no answer," Quintanilla said.

"You want an answer to that question?" Cruz asked. "I'd be happy to answer your question."

Cruz was interrupted this time by John Harwood who said "we're moving on."

"Senator [Rand] Paul, I've got a question for you," Harwood said in his attempt to move on.

"So you don't actually want to hear the answer, John?" Cruz called out the anchor. "You don't want to hear the answer, you just want to incite insults."

COMMENT:  It doesn't get better than that.  Good for Ted!   The Republicans are finally taking on the vast political corruption in the media.  I love it.

October 29,  2015     Permalink

OCTOBER 28,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

THE DEBATE – Sean Hannity said it best.  It's hard to know who won last night's Republican debate, but it's easy to know who lost – the media.  The disgraceful behavior of CNBC "journalists" is the talk of the internet.  Rude, "gotcha" questions seemed to dominate.  It was a journalistic assault on conservatives.  Several of the candidates, Ted Cruz most eloquently, protested the questioners' gross behavior.  Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus said, “While I was proud of our candidates and the way they handled tonight’s debate, the performance by the CNBC moderators was extremely disappointing and did a disservice to their network, our candidates, and voters."  I fully agree.  The rules must be changed to insure a fair, intelligent debate.  There may have to be a panel of respected journalists who can screen the questions beforehand to make sure the children don't mess things up.

THE RESULT – Very hard to say because voters this year seem to be reacting differently in some cases than they normally do.  Much praise is being given to Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina.  Donald Trump was Donald Trump.  He neither helped nor hurt himself, but certainly didn't break out.  Ben Carson is never spectacular in debate, but his quiet, dignified manner is his calling card.  You can't dislike him.  He oozes decency.  We'll have to wait for the serious polling to see if anything has changed.  But again, as we have pointed out, the sheer number of candidates onstage is too much for the audience to absorb.  The Republicans aren't being helped by the mob scene.  Some candidates should be encouraged to take vacations.

BACK TO REALITY – There was a policeman's funeral in New York yesterday.  From the New York Post:   An emotional Police Commissioner Bill Bratton bestowed a gold detective’s shield on NYPD Officer Randolph Holder at his funeral in Queens on Wednesday — with the same badge number as the dead cop’s former-policeman father, No. 9657.  “He is a hero,’’ said Bratton, his voice breaking before handing a box with the shield to Holder’s dad from the altar of the Greater Allen A.M.E. Cathedral of New York in Jamaica...A sea of grief washed over the city as an estimated 10,000 of the city’s Finest and family and friends of Holder flocked to the service.  The officer was shot dead as he pursued a perpetrator.  The officer was black, and was the son of an officer.  It would have been a gracious gesture had the president of the United States, who has done his share of police bashing, attended the funeral to demonstrate that this black life mattered also.  He didn't even send a wreath.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

APPEASEMENT, THE SEQUEL – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  Why are we not shocked?  During the debate over the Iran nuclear deal, we were assured by the administration that it would hold the line against Iran – no appeasement – despite the deal.  Yeah, sure.  This is the age of Obama.   Appeasement, Act II, has begun.  They betrayed us again.  From The Wall Street Journal:   

WASHINGTON—Iran will be invited to participate in international talks on the Syrian crisis Friday in Vienna, U.S. officials said, in a major shift in the Obama administration’s approach to ending more than four years of fighting in the country.

The White House on Tuesday also gave its strongest statement yet that it was willing to let President Bashar al-Assad remain in office and oversee a political transition in Syria, though he would eventually have to go.

One concession after another.  The way of Obama.  The sure way to eventual loss and a wider conflict.

This recent tack toward the Syrian dictator marks a significant U-turn from earlier U.S. demands that Mr. Assad leave office, and together with the shift on Iran, highlights the increased leverage of Russia and Iran after they jointly launched military operations in defense of Mr. Assad last month.

Another famous Obama triumph. 

“We have very different views, and our coalition partners do, from the Syrian government, the Russians and the Iranians,” Susan Rice, President Barack Obama’s national-security adviser, said at an event at Yale University. “But I think there is the potential for an arrangement to be agreed wherein this transition begins, perhaps with Assad still in power, but it doesn’t end with him in power.”

The U.S. and its Arab allies previously blocked Tehran from participating in United Nations-backed talks on Syria, because of Tehran’s deep military and financial support for Mr. Assad. Iran has repeatedly rejected U.S. demands that it commit to supporting a political transition in Damascus that would end the Syrian leader’s 15-year rule.

COMMENT:  Same pattern as in the Iran nuclear talks.  Tough statement at first, then hedging, then cave-in.  And other nations watch in dismay as the United States squanders its position.

What will Hillary say about all this?  Probably very little.  And the press won't notice.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

THE "LIKE" FACTOR – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  Let's face it.  We want to like our president.  We don't always get the chance, but we really do.  So the likability factor is regularly tested by pollsters.  Here are the latest results on the GOP side, via Andrew Malcolm at IBD: 

The winner of tonight's Republican debate in Colorado is TBD.

But already we know who is the most likable candidate. And who is enjoying a surge in polls to become the new front-runner. And -- this is not brain surgery, people -- they are one in the same: Ben Carson.

Gallup has released a new survey of more than 3,100 Republican-thinking adults. Its number-crunchers calculated the favorables and unfavorables of nine of the top GOP candidates and subtracted the bad from the good to come up with a Net Favorable rating.

Debates have played a significant role shaping the Republican field this cycle. Going into tonight's word-fest, Carson had the biggest plus-side, 68, and the smallest negative side, 8, for a Net Favorable of 60.

His nearest competitors were Marco Rubio (+40 based on 55 positive and 15 negative)) and Carly Fiorina (+33 based on 46 positive and 13 negative).

Who do you think has the worst Net Favorables? Nope, not Trump, although he has the worst negatives. It's Ohio's John Kasich with 26 positive and 18 negative for a Net Favorable of eight.
Trump came in only sixth place. He had the second largest favorables at 58. But he also had the largest unfavorables of 34 for a Net Favorable of only 24. That's ahead of Jeb Bush's Net Favorable of 19 (+50 and -31) and Chris Christie's 10 (+40 and -30).

COMMENT:  Carly's numbers contradict her nosedive in the polls, and I can't explain that.  As noted in our first post this morning, John Kasich gets good press reviews and is a favorite of the pros, but clearly hasn't made a public impact. 

As we always stress, a poll is just a snapshot in time.  Polls differ, and the same polling company may come up with different results even a week from now.  Still, it's hard to argue with Ben Carson's rise.  People just like him.  Do they like his policies, his pronouncements?  I'm not sure of that at all.  If he continues his rise, scrutiny will follow, and his statements will be more carefully examined.

October 28, 2015       Permalink

SHOWDOWN – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  The next Republican presidential debate will be tonight at 8 p.m. ET, on CNBC, from Boulder, Colorado.  It will be moderated by the ultra-liberal journalist John Harwood, which raises questions about the sanity of the GOP in agreeing to it. 

This is a major showdown.  The race is far enough along for the voters to draw some conclusions.  Trump is the frontrunner.  Even though a new national poll show Ben Carson ahead, Trump continues to lead in most of the all-important state contests, where convention delegates are actually awarded.

So, everyone will be shooting at Trump, trying to bring him down and framing him as a pseudo-Republican who is little more than a reality-show performer.  At the same time, candidates are aware that Carson can indeed forge ahead, and they will do nothing to praise him.

The ones who must perform are Jeb Bush, who has been a major disappointment; Marco Rubio, who many believe has the best chance of defeating Hillary Clinton, if only he can be nominated; and Carly Fiorina, who went from brilliant debate performer – the best debater on the stage – only to experience a nosedive in the polls.  The reason for the nosedive is unclear, but I suspect that many voters feel she is cold and mechanical. 

Most of the other candidates should probably withdraw from the race after tonight, but ego may keep them going.  Chris Christie, once the great hope, is not catching on.  Ted Cruz, probably the most brilliant of all the candidates, and potentially a great president, is probably not the right candidate for this year – a bit rough around the edges.  Of the second-tier candidates, Governor John Kasich of Ohio gets the best press, and the best reviews from the pros.  He hasn't caught on, but may wind up in the second spot on the ticket.

Lots of fireworks expected tonight.  At least the Republicans have a contest, not a coronation.

October 28,  2015      Permalink